Meeting 2 - Affordable Rental Housing and Displacement Pressure

Section 1 - State of Rental Housing in Chicago

This section examines key data on changing rental demand, the supply of rental housing, and how these dynamics are affecting access to affordable rental housing for Chicago’s lowest income households. The data focus on conditions in 2016, the most recent data available from the American Community Survey, and were adapted from IHS’s annual report The State of Rental Housing in Cook County. These data were commissioned by the City of Chicago to guide conversations around developing Chicago’s 2019-2023 Five Year Housing Plan.

Chart 1.1. Change in the Share of Households that Rent in the City of Chicago, 2006 to 2016

Source: 2006 & 2008 & 2010 & 2012 & 2014 & 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Chart 1.2. Change in Households that are Renter- or Owner-Occupied in the City of Chicago, 2006 to 2016

Source: 2006 & 2008 & 2010 & 2012 & 2014 & 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Chart 1.3. Composition of Renter Households by Income in the City of Chicago, 2012 to 2016

Source: 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 PUMS 1-year

Chart 1.4. Composition of Renter Households by Age in the City of Chicago, 2012 to 2016

Source: 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 PUMS 1-year

Chart 1.5. Composition of the Rental Stock by Building Size, 2012 to 2016

Source: 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 PUMS 1-year

Chart 1.6. Changing Share of Cost-Burdened Renter Households by Income in the City of Chicago, 2012 to 2016

Source: 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 PUMS 1-year

Chart 1.7. Change in the Affordability Gap in the City of Chicago, 2012 to 2016

Source: 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 PUMS 1-year

Chart 1.8. Change in Affordable Rental Supply and Demand Since 2012 in the City of Chicago, Indexed to 2012

Source: 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 PUMS 1-year

Section 2 - Challenges facing the affordable rental supply

This section drills down in more geographic detail to examine how Chicago’s rental housing supply has changed between 2010 and 2016. The following analysis uses a lens of neighborhood market types based on the relative cost of housing (high-cost, moderate-cost, lower-cost) to highlight how challenges to the affordable housing supply vary geographically in Chicago. More on this market typology can be found in the technical paper for IHS's recent project Mapping Displacement Pressure in Chicago.

Map 2.1: Submarket Types (high-cost, moderate-cost, lower-cost, insufficient data)

Chart 2.1. Median Sales Price per Unit for Multifamily Properties by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 and 2017

Source: IHS Data Clearinghouse

Chart 2.2. Indexed (2010) Change in Sales Price per Unit for Multifamily Rental Buildings in City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 to 2017

Source: IHS Data Clearinghouse

Chart 2.3. Median Sales Price for 2-to-4 unit Properties in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 and 2017

Source: IHS Data Clearinghouse

Chart 2.4. Indexed (2010) Change in Median Sales Price for 2-to-4 Unit Buildings in City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 to 2017

Source: IHS Data Clearinghouse

Chart 2.5. Share of Total Housing Units in Project-Based Section 8 and Housing Choice Vouchers in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2017

Source: HUD Picture of Subsidized Households, 2017

Chart 2.6. Rental Units by Building Type in the City of Chicago, 2012 to 2016

Source: 2012 & 2013 & 2014 & 2015 & 2016 PUMS 1-year

Chart 2.7. Percent Change in Total Housing Units in the City in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 to 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 5-year Estimates & 2016 ACS 5-year Estimates, IHS Data Clearinghouse

Chart 2.8. Net Change in Total Housing Units by Building Size in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 to 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 5-year Estimates & 2016 ACS 5-year Estimates, IHS data Clearinghouse

Chart 2.9. Share of Rental Units with Gross Rent below $900 in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 and 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 5-year Estimates & 2016 ACS 5-year Estimates, IHS data Clearinghouse

Chart 2.10. Net Change in Rental Units with Gross Rent above and below $900 in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 and 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 5-year Estimates & 2016 ACS 5-year Estimates, IHS data Clearinghouse

Chart 2.11. Mean of Median Income of Renter Households in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 and 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 5-year Estimates & 2016 ACS 5-year Estimates, IHS Data Clearinghouse

*2010 income is not adjusted for inflation

Chart 2.12. Mean of Median Gross Rent in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010* and 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 5-year Estimates & 2016 ACS 5-year Estimates, IHS Data Clearinghouse

*2010 Gross Rents are not adjusted for inflation

Chart 2.13. Percent Change in Mean of Median Gross Rent in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010* to 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 5-year Estimates & 2016 ACS 5-year Estimates, IHS data Clearinghouse

*2010 Gross Rents are not adjusted for inflation

Section 3 - Displacement pressure

This section highlights displacement pressure in a set of Chicago neighborhoods with 1) significant levels of populations vulnerable to displacement (i.e. renters, lower-income households, cost burdened households, etc) and 2) rising housing costs that indicate potential market shifts that may impact future housing affordability. The goal of IHS’s displacement pressure typology is to develop a leading indicator to identify neighborhoods at risk of rapid price appreciation, lost housing affordability, and potential displacement and to inform the creation of proactive, inclusive, and responsive strategies to support stability in the affordable housing stock and limit potential displacement of current residents. For more information, see IHS’s report and interactive mapping tool Mapping Displacement Pressure in Chicago.

Map 3.1: Displacement Pressure