Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Demand for Housing in Chicago

Section 1 - Recent population loss

This section examines Chicago’s recent population loss. It highlights some of the underlying dynamics of these shifts and puts them in the context of the five other largest American cities and peer Midwestern cities. These data were commissioned by the City of Chicago to guide conversations around developing Chicago’s 2019-2023 Five Year Housing Plan.

Chart 1.1. Population change in the City of Chicago, 1950 to 2016

Source: 1950-2010 U.S Decennial Census, 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Table 1.1a. Population Change in the City of Chicago and Five Most Populous U.S. Cities, 2010 to 2016

City	2010	2016	Percent change
New York City	8,184,899	8,537,673	+4.3%
Los Angeles	3,797,144	3,976,324	+4.7%
Chicago	2,698,831	2,704,965	+0.2%
Houston	2,107,208	2,304,388	+9.4%
Phoenix	1,449,481	1,615,041	+11.4%
Philadelphia	1,528,306	1,567,872	+2.6%
National	309,349,689	323,127,515	+4.5%

Source: 2010 ACS 1-Year Estimates & 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Table 1.1b. Population Change in the City of Chicago and Five Peer Midwestern Cities, 2010 to 2016

City	2010	2016	Percent change
Chicago	2,698,831	2,704,965	+0.2%
Indianapolis	824,199	852,506	+3.4%
Detroit	711,910	672,829	-5.5%
Milwaukee	595,587	595,070	-0.1%
Cleveland	396,240	385,810	-2.6%
St. Louis	319,156	311,404	-2.4%

Source: 2010 ACS 1-Year Estimates & 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Chart 1.2a. Composition of Population by Race and Ethnicity in the City of Chicago and Five Most Populous U.S. Cities, 2010 to 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 1-Year Estimates & 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Chart 1.2b. Composition of Population by Race and Ethnicity in the City of Chicago and Peer Midwestern Cities, 2010 to 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 1-Year Estimates & 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Chart 1.2c. Composition of Households by Income in the City of Chicago and Five Most Populous U.S. Cities, 2010 to 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 1-Year Estimates & 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Chart 1.2d. Composition of Households by Income in the City of Chicago and Peer Midwestern Cities, 2010 to 2016

Source: 2010 ACS 1-Year Estimates & 2016 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Section 2 - Shifts in job growth

This section briefly highlights job growth in Chicago’s downtown core and the loss of jobs in Chicago neighborhoods. Where new jobs are or are not locating is one of the primary factors affecting demand for housing in Chicago both positively and negatively.

Chart 2.1. Change in Private Sector Jobs by Submarket in the City of Chicago and Chicago Region, 1998 to 2017 (Indexed to 1998 Levels)

Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security, Where Workers Work 2017

Chart 2.2. Change in Share of Regional Private Sector Jobs in Chicago’s Downtown Core, 1998 to 2017

Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security, Where Workers Work 2017

Section 3 - Variation in Neighborhood Socioeconomic Conditions

The third section looks within Chicago and divides the city into neighborhood market types based on the relative cost of housing. This section highlights the variation in current conditions and recent trends for a set of socioeconomic variables in neighborhoods with high, moderate, and lower housing costs. More on this market typology can be found in the technical paper for IHS's recent project Mapping Displacement Pressure in Chicago. This section highlights the tremendous variation in Chicago neighborhoods and the dramatic recent shifts that have taken place in the city’s strongest and most challenged real estate markets.

Map 3.1. Submarket Types Map

Chart 3.1. Population Change in the City of Chicago by Neighborhood Market Type, 2010 to 2016